Prologue: A battle for economic sovereignty<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe Great Depression of the 1930s was more than an economic collapse; it was an ideological crucible. As capitalism faltered, socialism surged, promising salvation through state control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Today, that battle rages anew, with the U.S. Federal Reserve at its heart. Martin\u2019s metaphor of the Federal Reserve as a chaperone\u2014removing the punch bowl to curb excess\u2014once defined an era of restraint: intervene only to prevent instability, never to orchestrate outcomes. That era is dead. The Federal Reserve has abandoned its traditional neutrality, embracing Keynesian dogma and becoming a partisan weapon in the war between capitalism and socialism, a war that threatens American economic sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Adam Smith\u2019s America: How a Scottish philosopher became an icon of American capitalism, Glory M. Liu chronicles how University of Chicago economists Jacob Viner and Frank Knight revived Smith\u2019s classical liberalism during the 1930s to counter socialism\u2019s rise. They reframed Smith not as a laissez-faire absolutist but as a philosopher of balanced liberty: individual initiative tempered by moral responsibility. Their work, built upon by economists Milton Friedman, Robert Lucas Jr., and Gary Becker, became capitalism\u2019s intellectual shield\u2014leading to Nobel Prizes and global influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet, nearly a century later, the Federal Reserve is discarding this legacy, retreating from the neutral ground Martin and the Chicago School secured. Driven by political expediency rather than economic fundamentals, its policies now distort markets and heighten instability. For investors, the stakes are clear \u2014 the Federal Reserve\u2019s bias imperils portfolios, and only a return to neutrality can restore balance. U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s policies are forcing this reckoning, exposing the Federal Reserve\u2019s Keynesian tilt as inherently political. The central bank must confront its ideological drift and reclaim its role as an impartial referee before it\u2019s too late. Simply put, since the Federal Reserve is beholden only to the Keynesian School of thought, it is implicitly biased. This bias is becoming too obvious to ignore. The Federal Reserve needs to cut rates to 2.75 per cent and will most likely start this summer. For sophisticated investors we must be honest: we have just lived through six months where everything changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Smithian roots: Liberty, markets, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s original mandate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nTo grasp the Federal Reserve\u2019s fall, we must revisit its intellectual foundations. Established in 1913 to quell financial panics, the Federal Reserve initially oscillated between innovation and error. Benjamin Strong Jr., head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the 1920s, pioneered open market operations to stabilize the economy after the First World War. Strong responded innovatively to the sharp but brief post-war depression\u2014often called the \u201cForgotten Depression\u201d\u2014by pioneering large-scale open market operations, dramatically increasing the availability of credit, and helping the economy recover quickly by stabilizing prices and supporting bank liquidity. At the same time, while Strong recognized the economically punitive flaws of the Treaty of Versailles\u2014advocating for its speedy ratification despite imperfections and warning that harsh economic terms on Germany would perpetuate instability\u2014he instead promoted moderate reparations and robust American involvement in European reconstruction to foster lasting peace and economic recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Strong\u2019s death in 1928 left the Federal Reserve adrift, and its subsequent missteps\u2014tightening money supply during a downturn and failing to halt banking panics\u2014helped trigger the Great Depression. The collapse shattered faith in capitalism, fueling collectivist ideologies across the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this crisis, the University of Chicago became a bastion of classical liberalism. Viner and Knight resurrected Smith\u2019s The Wealth of Nations and The Theory of Moral Sentiments, arguing that markets, guided by liberty and moral constraints, were the antidote to statism. Their vision of the Federal Reserve was clear: a neutral arbiter ensuring stability without distorting price signals. This nuanced Smithian framework, balancing freedom with responsibility, shaped American economic thought for decades, culminating in Friedman\u2019s free-market advocacy and the Chicago School\u2019s global dominance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet, this equilibrium was fragile. The Federal Reserve\u2019s role as a neutral chaperone, as Martin envisioned, required discipline. It was not to dictate outcomes but to preserve the market\u2019s ability to allocate resources efficiently. That principle, rooted in Smith\u2019s invisible hand, is now under siege.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keynesian ascendancy: From referee to central planner<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe Smithian ideal of neutrality was eclipsed by Keynesian economics. The Great Depression and the Second World War mobilization fertilized John Maynard Keynes\u2019 theories of government intervention and demand management. By the 1950s, Martin\u2019s Federal Reserve, newly independent from the U.S. Treasury, embodied restraint\u2014intervene only to curb excess, not to steer the economy. This \u201cpunch bowl\u201d doctrine trusted markets to function, with the Federal Reserve as a steady hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Under Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan, this balance eroded. Widely referred to as \u201cThe Maestro,\u201d he abandoned restraint, using low rates and liquidity to cushion every market dip. The \u201cGreenspan put\u201d fostered moral hazard, conditioning markets to expect perpetual support. Ben Bernanke\u2019s response to the 2008 crisis\u2014 zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), quantitative easing (QE), and bailouts cemented this shift. The Federal Reserve morphed from referee to central planner, embracing Keynesian demand management and sidelining Smith\u2019s core tenet: markets reveal truth through prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This technocratic hubris grew unchecked. The Federal Reserve began to believe it could fine-tune the business cycle, manage inflation, and stabilize asset prices. Its toolkit expanded as did its ambitions. Monetary policy became a driver of growth, employment, and even social outcomes: far beyond its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The Federal Reserve\u2019s role ballooned, and its self perceived indispensability became dogma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The 2013 \u201ctaper tantrum\u201d marked a turning point in Federal Reserve ideology and market expectations. When the Federal Reserve hinted at reducing QE, markets panicked, yields spiked, and volatility surged, exposing heavy dependence on central bank support. This episode foreshadowed today\u2019s \u201cdetox period,\u201d where private sector leadership is again emphasized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The illusion of neutrality: Ideology masquerading as policy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nToday, the Federal Reserve\u2019s claim to neutrality is a fiction. Its leadership operates in a Keynesian echo chamber where academic biases pose as rigor. This is not a central bank that trusts markets; it is an institution convinced of its role as the economy\u2019s architect. Cognitive capture pervades its ranks. Central bank officials view markets as wayward pupils in need of technocratic guidance, dismissing Smith\u2019s invisible hand as obsolete. The next Federal Reserve chair will have his or her work cut out for them. Decades of drift and mission creep will not be easily corrected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This entrenched mission creep is rampant. The Federal Reserve now meddles in climate policy, inequality, and social engineering, diluting its focus on its core mandate. It relies on outdated 1950s models, ignoring real-time digital signals that define today\u2019s economy. This bias crystallized under Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve misdiagnosed 2021\u2019s inflation surge as \u201ctransitory,\u201d clinging to the Phillips Curve while ignoring supply-chain disruptions and shifting consumer behaviour. It scapegoated tariffs for inflation, despite services dominating U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and imports being a minor factor. Most alarmingly, it has kept rates restrictive\u2014around 5 per cent in mid 2025\u2014despite data signaling a slowing economy and deflation risks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding shelter falling to 1.5 per cent and commodity prices plunging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are not mere errors, they are philosophical betrayals. The Federal Reserve, once above politics, is now mired in it\u2014its decisions swayed by Washington\u2019s winds as much as market logic. For investors, the implications are stark: policy errors distort asset prices, starve liquidity, and erode confidence. The Federal Reserve\u2019s credibility is unraveling, and markets are paying the price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The unraveling: A fiscal and monetary reckoning<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe evidence is undeniable; the Federal Reserve has traded economic theory for political convenience. My thesis, first articulated in 2022, warned of this drift. Today, relentless data, falling yields, the re-emergence of the liquidity trap in China, and deflationary signals have validated it. The fiscal crisis is equally dire. U.S. debt-to-GDP exceeds 120 per cent, a legacy of years of fiscal indiscipline. The Federal Reserve\u2019s silence during this period was an act of complicity. The Federal Reserve needs to cut in July and get the federal funds rate (FFR) down to r*, the neutral rate, without delay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet the Federal Reserve doubles down. Despite clear signals of economic slowdown, unemployment rising to 4.2 per cent [1], and GDP growth projected at around 1.5 per cent for 2025, it refuses to cut rates to the neutral rate (r*) of 2.75 per cent. Quantitative tightening (QT) continues, draining liquidity as credit markets tighten. Forward guidance is now dismissed as political theatre. Even Wall Street strategists, once Federal Reserve cheerleaders, struggle to defend its disconnect from reality. The Federal Reserve\u2019s reputation for technocratic excellence has given way to skepticism, even cynicism, among investors who once saw it as the ultimate backstop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After the Second World War and Alvin Hansen: A precedent setting road map<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nAfter the Second World War, the U.S. faced a 116 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio, similar to today\u2019s 120 per cent plus. Unlike modern fears of a permanent deficit, optimism prevailed after the war, with deficits seen as temporary wartime burdens. Economist Alvin Hansen, the father of the secular stagnation hypothesis, shaped this view, arguing that strong economic growth and moderate inflation would shrink the debt burden relative to GDP without austerity. He believed deficits were manageable as long as growth outpaced interest costs, a stance that calmed fears. Hansen advocated for cyclical balance, using deficits in crises but expecting surpluses in booms, rejecting the idea of perpetual deficits. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
By 1948, robust GDP growth of 4-5 per cent and a sharp reduction in military spending\u2014from US$83 billion in 1945 to US $14 billion (both in nominal dollars)\u2014led to a budget surplus, validating his optimism. Today\u2019s anxiety over structural deficits, fueled by entitlements and 1.5 per cent growth projections, contrasts sharply with Hansen\u2019s era of dynamism. Yet, if deficits become manageable in 2025, the Federal Reserve can catalyze recovery by cutting the FFR to the neutral rate (r*) of 2.75 per cent, fostering real negative rates. This, paired with sustained economic growth, could make interest payments sustainable, echoing Hansen\u2019s faith in growth over austerity. The trick lies in balancing real negative rates, robust growth, and fiscal discipline to grow our way out: restoring confidence in a manageable fiscal future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Trump mandate: A return to markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe 2024 U.S. election marked a turning point. Trump\u2019s mandate \u2014re-privatization, deregulation, and supply-side economics\u2014rejects progressive Keynesianism. His agenda echoes the Chicago School\u2019s Smithian roots, prioritizing private initiative over state control. The Federal Reserve\u2019s response, however, reveals its bias. Powell\u2019s reluctance to align with this shift stems from a Keynesian worldview that is implicitly political. The Federal Reserve is no longer a neutral chaperone but a partisan guest, tilting the punch bowl based on who holds power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To align with this new era, the Federal Reserve must act decisively, cut rates to 2.75 per cent, halt QT, and retire QE as a tool of social engineering. U.S. interest payments now consume nearly a third of the $316 billion monthly deficit. The Federal Reserve\u2019s political bias does come at a cost, interest payments on debt. Most critically, it must restore Martin\u2019s doctrine: intervene only to prevent excess, not to control outcomes. Failure to do so risks irrelevance in a market-driven economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Six months that changed everything<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe first half of 2025 was a seismic shift for the world, and markets, to the surprise of consensus, are quickly adapting. After a 20 per cent S&P 500 correction in April, driven by tariff fears and global uncertainty, the index rebounded 23 per cent to approach 6,000\u2014with a year-end target of 7,000. This recovery was no accident. Structural reforms, bold policy, and a U.S.-China trade deal stabilized supply chains and quelled inflation fears. Despite Middle East conflicts and domestic unrest, markets signaled \u201crisk-on\u201d resilience, underpinned by economic strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s Athens-Rome analogy in his first address to Parliament\u2014 invoking Canada as \u201cAthens\u201d to America\u2019s \u201cRome\u201d\u2014frames this transformation. Drawing on former British prime minister Harold Macmillan\u2019s metaphor, which highlighted America\u2019s rise as a world power, Carney positions Canada not as a junior partner but as a source of democratic values, innovation, and resources. This vision of North American integration leverages Canada\u2019s resource wealth, digital leadership, and civic stability to complement U.S. scale. Trump\u2019s tariff strategy secured concessions from China, stabilizing trade, while Carney\u2019s \u201call of the above\u201d energy policy positions Canada as a resource superpower. A U.S.-Canada deal, enhancing economic integration, is imminent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Outlook: Policy and market drivers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nWith U.S. inflation excluding shelter at 1.5 per cent, markets are ignoring Federal Reserve chatter and anticipate rate cuts this summer. I still believe the July meeting is live. Yes, they are late, extremely late. The Bank of Canada faces similar disinflationary pressures, with shelter costs driving residual price pressures amid weak demand and 7 per cent unemployment. Globally, deflation risks loom, China grapples with a liquidity trap, and the Swiss National Bank has cut rates to zero. Central bankers, ignoring lessons from the 1930s, risk repeating history\u2019s errors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Athens-Rome blueprint is taking shape. Canada\u2019s resource development and artificial intelligence (AI) leadership attract global capital, while U.S. deregulation and energy independence create a self-reliant continent. The \u201cpermanent inflation\u201d narrative has collapsed, supply chains are healed, wage growth is subdued, and tariffs have minimal impact in a weak demand environment. I expect at least 75 basis points of easing by year-end, signaling confidence in a soft landing in the U.S. In Canada, I still expect the Bank of Canada overnight rates to be close to 2 per cent by the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The peace dividend in a complex world: Opportunities amidst challenges<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nAs British Prime Minister Winston Churchill is said to have observed, \u201cThe further backward you look, the farther forward you are likely to see.\u201d This wisdom underscores the importance of perspective when assessing global stability and investment opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the recent U.S.-China agreement marks a notable development, the realization of a genuine \u201cpeace dividend\u201d remains elusive amid persistent global conflicts. Currently, defence spending is at historic levels, often overshadowing critical investments in healthcare and infrastructure. For NATO allies, a new phase of increased defence expenditure has begun, whereas the U.S. may be approaching a period of strategic recalibration. History indicates that periods of heightened tension often precede opportunities for renewal and stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Looking ahead over the next five quarters, astute investors who anticipate a decline in geopolitical risks are likely to be well-positioned for future gains. Meanwhile, secular growth drivers\u2014including advancements in AI, power infrastructure, semiconductors, housing, and financial sectors\u2014 continue to demonstrate resilience and robust potential. Deregulatory initiatives in banking and insurance, together with legislative support for digital assets embodied in the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, are poised to stimulate credit creation and foster innovation across sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Over the past six months, Trump has pursued a strategic approach rooted in the philosophy of \u201cpeace through strength,\u201d combining assertive diplomacy with military preparedness. Notable achievements include the May 2025 ceasefire between India and Pakistan, effectively preventing a nuclear escalation, and the June 21, 2025, peace treaty between Rwanda and Congo. Pakistan publicly recognized Trump\u2019s \u201cdecisive diplomatic intervention\u201d in the India-Pakistan crisis, even nominating him for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On June 22, 2025, Trump authorized targeted U.S. strikes against Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This decisive response underscores a strategic belief that credible military strength is essential for deterrence and stability. While I had anticipated that Trump\u2019s leadership might catalyze a broader peace dividend, these developments serve as a reminder that periods of uncertainty often give way to opportunities. They highlight the importance of strategic foresight in navigating the complex geopolitical landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Looking ahead: Volatility and opportunity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe second half of 2025 will test markets. Lagged effects of high rates and government efficiency programs kicking in will slow U.S. GDP to 1.5 per cent. Expect a strong second-quarter GDP print based on payback from the excessively weak first quarter. Fiscal imbalances persist, U.S. interest payments strain budgets, requiring real negative rates and time to resolve. Volatility looms in the fourth quarter, but lower-quality stocks may rally as underinvested funds chase returns. A Republican Congress, pushing deregulation and defence spending, could drive a 2026 rally into the U.S. midterms. Major corrections are unlikely to repeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Federal Reserve has enough data to have the FFR sitting at the natural rate (r*) of 2.75 per cent. An early summer rate cut would not surprise or be profound. It\u2019s the glide path to 2.75 per cent investors need to focus on. Slowing growth and increasing liquidity has been the investment playbook page to monitor. We climb the Wall of Worry on the way to the S&P 500 reaching 7,000. As for Canada, expect the TSX to underperform the S&P 500. Exposure to risk assets is the name of the game until late 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Conclusion: Courage and clarity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe Federal Reserve stands at an inflection point. Will it cling to Keynesian control or rediscover Smith\u2019s wisdom that markets, guided by moral limits, drive prosperity? The data is clear, cut rates to 2.75 per cent, halt QT, and retire QE. The Federal Reserve must restore Martin\u2019s restraint. Its choices will shape not just the business cycle but the soul of American capitalism. A peace dividend is in the making\u2014 and while it may still feel uncertain, it\u2019s often darkest just before the dawn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first half of 2025 proves the power of fundamentals and policy clarity. North America, guided by Trump\u2019s market-driven vision, is being built on the foundation of a peace dividend. The Federal Reserve must step back, ease its constrictions on the private sector, and let markets and the private sector breathe. The Federal Reserve\u2019s fear of second-order effects creating an uncontrollable inflation spiral is misplaced\u2014this is not the 1970s. For investors, the lesson is clear: look beyond headlines, embrace the long view, and seize the dawn of a new bull market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] – Source: https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/pdf\/empsit.pdf<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Great Depression of the 1930s was more than an economic collapse; it was an ideological crucible. As capitalism faltered, socialism surged, promising salvation through state control. Today, that battle rages anew, with the U.S. Federal Reserve at its heart. Martin\u2019s metaphor of the Federal Reserve as a chaperone\u2014removing the punch bowl to curb excess\u2014once defined an era of restraint: intervene only to prevent instability, never to orchestrate outcomes. That era is dead. The Federal Reserve has abandoned its traditional neutrality, embracing Keynesian dogma and becoming a partisan weapon in the war between capitalism and socialism, a war that threatens American economic sovereignty.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":13325,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[79],"class_list":["post-13186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","tag-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
July Market Insights: The Six Months Where Everything Changed - Wellington-Altus<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wellington-altus.ca\/fr\/july-market-insights-the-six-months-where-everything-changed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"July Market Insights: The Six Months Where Everything Changed - Wellington-Altus\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Great Depression of the 1930s was more than an economic collapse; it was an ideological crucible. As capitalism faltered, socialism surged, promising salvation through state control. Today, that battle rages anew, with the U.S. Federal Reserve at its heart. 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