From Pax Americana to America First<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nTo see how this intersects with geopolitics, it is worth recalling what made Pax Americana unusual. After 1945, the U.S. possessed unmatched industrial, military and financial power, yet chose order\u2011building over annexation. Bretton Woods [1] created a rules\u2011based monetary system, the Marshall Plan [2] rebuilt former enemies, and American power underwrote global trade and security on terms far more generous than any previous hegemon would have offered. This was restraint at the moment of maximum leverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The post\u2011Second World War system depended not just on American power, but on America\u2019s willingness to absorb costs others preferred not to acknowledge. Over time, surplus economies, allied free\u2011riders and global capital learned to rely on the American balance sheet and Navy. British economist John Maynard Keynes warned that any system becomes unstable when the burden of adjustment falls too heavily on one side\u2014that is what happened as the U.S. hollowed out parts of its industrial base, accumulated debt and watched allies treat U.S. commitments as an entitlement rather than a bargain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAmerica First\u201d is best read as the political expression of a system that had stopped pricing hegemony honestly. It is also, in part, a modern derivative of Clay\u2019s early 19th-century American System, a program of protective tariffs, internal improvements and national development designed to build domestic industry and reduce dependence on foreign powers. Trump\u2019s economic and national security strategy makes sense at the metagame level. The point is not that every tariff is sacred or every alliance expendable. It is that the U.S. can no longer remain the world\u2019s consumer of last resort, security guarantor of first resort and fiscal shock absorber at a discount. Hegemony is being repriced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That repricing operates through several channels. Trade policy becomes less about abstract efficiency and more about repatriating strategic supply chains. Alliances are subjected to harsher burden\u2011sharing demands. Energy policy is reoriented towards domestic production rather than imported virtue. Underneath the noise, the message is simple\u2014late\u2011imperial America has over\u2011promised against a weakened productive base, and the only way to sustain great\u2011power obligations is to rebuild that foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The decline and fall of the Roman Empire in the age of Trump<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nEdward Gibbon\u2019s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire offered a brutal taxonomy of late\u2011imperial decay: a state living beyond its means, a weakening stock of productive capital and a people drifting from citizens into dependents. Measured against those categories, contemporary America looks uncomfortably Roman\u2014and Trump\u2019s America First Policy reads as a visceral response to that diagnosis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gibbon\u2019s Rome does not collapse in a single catastrophe\u2014it sags. Obligations accumulate faster than wealth, coin is shaved, taxes proliferate and extraordinary levies become routine. The governing class refuses to live within society\u2019s real productive capacity. Debt and debasement are not clever tools but visible marks of a deeper refusal to choose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alongside this fiscal drift, the productive core hollows out. Independent citizens give way to dependents of landlords, bureaucracies and patronage networks; local initiative weakens; and more of society lives as recipients rather than producers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The third element of Gibbon\u2019s framework is psychological. Politics becomes spectacle, elite energy is consumed by factional quarrels, and the public comes to see the state less as something it upholds than as something that exists to uphold it. \u201cBread and circuses\u201d is not merely a moral jab\u2014it is the structure of a society accustomed to being maintained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump\u2019s instinct starts from the recognition that the U.S. has drifted into its own late\u2011imperial configuration\u2014 federal debt towering over output, shuttered factories, hollowed\u2011out towns, a stretched military and a capital that can always fund the next foreign deployment but struggles to license the next refinery. America First treats excessive debt not as a technocratic nuisance but as a verdict on a model that imports its goods, outsources its energy, subsidizes dependence and borrows to hide the contradictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The conclusion is not that America must shrink to fit its weakened base, but that the base must be rebuilt so that America can remain what it is. Hence the relentlessly material focus of Trump\u2011era economics\u2014deregulation as a solution to permitting bottlenecks that block wells, mines, ports, grids and factories; onshoring as an effort to drag productive capital back inside the political community; and growth through ships, rigs and fabs rather than abstractions in a spreadsheet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The same logic informs his rough handling of alliances and trade. For decades, Washington piled up security commitments without asking whether a de\u2011industrialized, energy\u2011importing economy could support them indefinitely. Demands for fairer burden\u2011sharing, rebalanced trade and meaningful borders all reflect one Gibbonian instinct\u2014late empires fail when promises outrun capacity. Better to renegotiate now than to default later, economically or strategically. Trump is not Gibbon\u2014he operates on instinct, not footnotes. But the Gibbonian lens clarifies what that instinct is reacting against\u2014and what it is trying, clumsily, to repair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From AI to the productivity regime<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nInto this late\u2011imperial context comes AI. Much commentary still treats AI as a speculative theme akin to social media or early cloud computing. That is too shallow. AI is emerging as a general\u2011purpose technology and a macro regime variable: a source of economy wide productivity gains, a driver of physical capex and a justification for a policy mix that favours supply expansion over demand micromanagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Supply\u2011side economics, properly understood, is not a relic. It is the proposition that a nation escapes debt and stagnation not by endlessly manipulating demand, but by expanding its capacity to produce: more output per hour, productive capital, innovation, energy and logistical efficiency. Agentic AI sits near the centre of that thesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unlike earlier software waves that accelerated narrow workflows, agentic systems can initiate, coordinate and complete multi\u2011step tasks with limited human supervision across coding, research, logistics, operations and customer\u2011facing functions. That makes AI closer to electrification or the microprocessor than to the latest consumer app. General\u2011purpose technologies diffuse through the capital stock over years and require complementary investment, retraining, energy systems and organizational redesign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The plausible bull case is not that AI instantly abolishes labour or produces overnight utopia. It is that agentic AI lifts the long\u2011run ceiling on productivity and keeps investment demand high through the end of the decade, precisely when debt dynamics require faster nominal and real growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bottlenecks, Taiwan and the cycle\u2019s duration<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe strongest argument against the \u201cAI bubble\u201d narrative is not rhetorical but physical. Taiwan remains the narrowest point in the global AI value chain. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) dominates leading\u2011edge semiconductor fabrication, with some estimates putting its share of the most advanced chips used in AI workloads above 90 per cent. That concentration is obviously a geopolitical risk. Any blockade, conflict or coercive disruption around Taiwan would trigger a severe supply shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But it is also why this AI cycle is likely to last longer than past tech booms. The hardware constraint means the capex wave cannot be fully front\u2011loaded. The combination of lithography, materials, packaging, engineering depth and supplier ecosystems clustered around Hsinchu cannot be recreated in a few quarters. This is not fibre in empty office parks. It is an industrial build\u2011out requiring fabs, substations, turbines, gas infrastructure, transmission, cooling, advanced materials and engineering talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The bottleneck stretches the cycle by forcing a sequencing of adoption. Productivity gains arrive in waves as compute, power and enterprise integration expand. The right interpretation is not late\u2011cycle mania but early\u2011stage diffusion under hard constraints. Bottlenecked revolutions usually last longer because the constraint rations upside over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Energy, security and a new peace dividend<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nNone of this works without abundant energy. Training and deploying large AI systems is power intensive and the supporting ecosystem\u2014data centres, grids, fabs, industrial logistics\u2014is even more so. Energy policy thus becomes metagame strategy. Cheap, secure and scalable power is no longer just a utility issue; it is industrial policy, inflation policy and national\u2011security policy at once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here, America First\u2019s instincts, often mocked, are strategically coherent. A nation that controls hydrocarbons, generation, transmission capacity and critical minerals, enjoys a structural advantage over one that prioritizes scarcity while relying on fragile supply chains. Energy dominance is not a slogan. It is the precondition for AI dominance, manufacturing resilience and credible deterrence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is also a second\u2011order market effect\u2014a harder version of the peace dividend. Not the 1990s fantasy that history has ended, but a rugged peace grounded in deterrence, alliance burden\u2011sharing and control of chokepoints. If American strategy reduces disorder at the margin\u2014keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, securing semiconductor and energy routes, pushing allies to shoulder more of their own defence and deterring escalation\u2014then capital markets gain something invaluable; fewer catastrophic tails. Markets do not need utopia. A rough peace underwritten by strength and energy abundance is enough to compress risk premia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The policy triumvirate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe metagame is no longer just an intellectual frame\u2014it is acquiring institutional form. The most important development in American macro policy is that the people shaping money, fiscal strategy and market psychology are increasingly aligned on supply\u2011side logic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kevin Warsh, U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor, has long argued that the Federal Reserve grew too large, too discretionary and too entangled in fiscal and political tasks that should never have been delegated to a central bank. His critique of post\u20112008 quantitative easing was philosophical: an overgrown Fed distorts capital allocation, socializes risk, weakens price signals and tempts politicians to dodge structural reform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scott Bessent, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, brings a complementary worldview, stressing fiscal discipline, energy expansion and a shift from transfer\u2011heavy programs towards productive investment and supply side reform. Former hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller, though outside office, supplies the Wall Street counterpart. He has long warned that cheap money and reflexive bailouts misprice risk and degrade capital allocation, and he has increasingly emphasised AI infrastructure, chips and enabling hardware over narrative\u2011driven speculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What unites this informal triumvirate is an agreement on first principles: supply\u2011side reform is essential in a debt\u2011heavy world, the Fed should be smaller and more focused, and policy should raise the after\u2011tax, after\u2011regulation return on real investment in energy, semiconductors, logistics and AI infrastructure. That alignment matters because it changes the regime. Previously, new technologies often advanced against policy that rewarded financial engineering over real capex. In the emerging regime, the bull case is no longer fighting Washington\u2014it is increasingly embedded in it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Markets, doomers and the AI stack<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nWall Street\u2019s narrative remains haunted by the last crisis. In quick succession, investors were sold a private credit crisis, told software was structurally doomed by AI, and handed a Middle East scenario built around a catastrophically shut Strait of Hormuz. Reality was less theatrical. Credit bent but did not break. Software adapted instead of evaporating. The strait stayed open. Risk assets absorbed the shock, repriced and moved on. The professional doom industry did not revise its framework\u2014it merely changed costumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Performative pessimism is not prudence. It is click bait for those who confuse anxiety with insight. Serious investors should expect mess, shocks and volatility as part of the game. But they should also recognize that in a regime shaped by AI\u2011led productivity, supply\u2011side reform, energy abundance and a rough peace dividend, periodic drawdowns are more likely to be resets inside an extended expansion than preludes to systemic collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The key is to stop treating AI as a single trade and start seeing it as a stack. Behind every frontier model is a data centre; behind every data centre is a chain of chips, servers, memory, networking, power, buildings, cooling and transmission. The investor\u2019s job is not to worship one charismatic CEO. It is to own the bottlenecks the new regime cannot function without.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hot\u2011run thesis for 2031<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThis leads to the question that animates markets\u2014what earnings and multiples can this regime plausibly support? The answer looks less like the post\u2011Global Financial Crisis stagnation era and more like a modernized version of the late 1980s and 1990s, when growth, productivity and valuation rose together. Then, the S&P 500\u2019s trailing price\/earnings ratio (P\/E) moved from roughly 10.4 x in 1985 to about 34 x by early 2000, while the peak forward P\/E reached roughly 24.4 x in March 2000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this story\u2019s sequel, Trump runs the economy hot, nominal GDP grows near seven per cent a year, and S&P 500 earnings grow not one\u2011for\u2011one with nominal GDP, but at roughly 1.5\u20112 x that rate, powered by AI\u2011driven productivity and investment incentives such as full capex expensing. If earnings are around US$400 in 2027, that regime produces roughly US$600\u2011650 by 2031, implying 10.5\u201114 per cent annual earnings per share growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From there, three valuation paths sketch the range of outcomes. In the base case, the market believes the story but stops short of mania. Earnings reach about US$600 and investors pay around 22 x forward earnings\u2014rich by long\u2011run standards but below the 2000 forward peak\u2014delivering an S&P 500 in the low to mid 13,000s. In the strong bull case, investors become convinced this is a durable supply\u2011side boom. Earnings move to US$625\u2011650 and the market pays roughly 25 x trailing earnings, nudging the index towards 15,000\u201116,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a euphoric 1999\u2011style case, earnings still land in the US$625\u2011650 band but the multiple stretches towards 30 x, taking the S&P 500 into the 18,000\u201119,500 range. Dividend reinvestment lowers the bar. With a two per cent yield reinvested each year, part of total return comes from compounding income rather than price alone, making a 15,000\u201116,000 destination easier to reach on a total return basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By contrast, a consensus that sees the S&P 500 only at 10,000 by 2031 implies a very different world. From roughly 7,500 today, 10,000 in five years is about six per cent annual price growth. With a flat multiple, earnings growth must also be about six per cent\u2014add a two per cent dividend yield reinvested, and total return rises to roughly eight per cent annually. Implicitly, that view assumes only four to five per cent nominal GDP growth, no structural re\u2011rating and no belief that supply\u2011side reform and AI have changed the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A repricing, not a bubble<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe baseline expectation into 2027 on the hotter thesis looks very different. The metagame is the American system updated for the AI age: run the economy hot, rebuild productive capacity and let productivity do the heavy lifting. On that view, earnings growth should run above long\u2011run averages, driven by AI\u2011led productivity, capex and broader operating leverage rather than by financial engineering alone. Multiples can remain elevated or expand as the market discounts a higher\u2011growth, lower tail\u2011risk regime rather than a replay of secular stagnation. Leadership broadens from early AI winners into energy, industrials, infrastructure, logistics, semiconductors, selected software and financial rails tied to the new productive architecture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On that framework, a path approaching 10,000 on the S&P 500 by 2027 and 14,000 by 2029 is aggressive but not deranged. It requires above\u2011trend earnings growth, multiple support from lower perceived tail risk and sustained conviction that this is a re\u2011rating of productive capacity rather than a fantasy bubble. The point is not to predict a straight line. It is to recognise that if productivity accelerates while risk premia compress, historical valuation anchors will look too low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is why this episode should be understood as a rerating, not a bubble. If Wall Street\u2019s models and beliefs remain anchored in the secular\u2011stagnation era, it will be true to form for strategists to label earnings above trend as speculative excess. But the only real bubble may be in that mislabelling. Bubbles are built on imagined cash flows, absent capacity and an eventual collision with hard constraints. This cycle is being driven by hard constraints\u2014power, fabs, engineering talent and geopolitical chokepoints\u2014and policy choices designed to ease them. The market is not pricing a hallucination\u2014it is beginning to price a new era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Looking to the end of the decade<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nBy the end of the decade, the central question will not be whether bears invent another alarming acronym. It will be whether the U.S. successfully translates its structural advantages\u2014deep capital markets, energy resources, leading software and chip design, military reach and institutional flexibility\u2014into a new productivity era. If it does, debt becomes more manageable through growth, earnings rise faster than a generation trained in the 2010s expects, and multiples remain above historical averages because the economy has shifted onto a better nominal and real growth path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This does not mean every stock is sensible or every moment is safe. It means the dominant error of the era is likely to be underestimating duration. Investors remain haunted by past bubbles and struggle to recognize when a genuine re\u2011rating is underway because they are still using the wrong mental model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is the metagame point. Most participants remain trapped in the manifestations of events\u2014the next sell\u2011off, geopolitical scare or doom thread. The deeper trend points elsewhere: towards a supply\u2011side, productivity\u2011led, AI extended, geopolitically repriced American expansion that can run further into the end of the decade than historical norms suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thiel\u2019s line lands here as well. Competition is for losers in the sense that the serious task for capital is not to fight harder inside the daily noise, but to recognize when the game itself has changed. Many investors make the mistake of investing in the present. If you only respond to today\u2019s noise, your returns will suffer. Forcing yourself to look out 12 to 24 months compels you, almost by definition, to think about the metagame: what forces are driving the trends, whether the rules are changing, and whether structural shifts are underway. The simple lesson is to look forward rather than stay anchored to the past. The right stance is neither euphoria nor complacency, but recognition\u2014ignore the spectacle and accept that for long\u2011term investors who are willing to play the metagame, the opportunity in this new America\u2011system world is not merely to survive the transition, but to finance the rebuild.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] 1944 agreement which shaped the global financial system pegging currencies to the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] American initiative providing US$13 billion in aid to help rebuild Western Europe following the Second World War.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In politics and markets, the decisive contest is often the one being played above the visible struggle. Elections, earnings and summit communiqu\u00e9s are the surface game\u2014the real action lies in the metagame, the contest over rules, incentives and narratives that shape outcomes long after today\u2019s skirmishes are forgotten. Henry Kissinger, American diplomat and political scientist, warned that most statesmen get lost in the \u201cmanifestations of events\u201d\u2014daily crises, tactical choices and headlines\u2014and fail to read the deeper \u201ctrend of events\u201d that gives those crises meaning. Investors make the same mistake when they trade every move in yields or volatility but never ask which regime those data points are compounding into over a five\u2011 or ten\u2011year horizon.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":14817,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[79],"class_list":["post-14812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights","tag-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
July Market Insights: Trump's Meta Game, Pax Americana, and the AI Age - Wellington-Altus<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wellington-altus.ca\/fr\/july-market-insights-trumps-meta-game-pax-americana-and-the-age-of-ai\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"July Market Insights: Trump's Meta Game, Pax Americana, and the AI Age - Wellington-Altus\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In politics and markets, the decisive contest is often the one being played above the visible struggle. Elections, earnings and summit communiqu\u00e9s are the surface game\u2014the real action lies in the metagame, the contest over rules, incentives and narratives that shape outcomes long after today\u2019s skirmishes are forgotten. Henry Kissinger, American diplomat and political scientist, warned that most statesmen get lost in the \u201cmanifestations of events\u201d\u2014daily crises, tactical choices and headlines\u2014and fail to read the deeper \u201ctrend of events\u201d that gives those crises meaning. 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