THE LONG END OF THE YIELD CURVE
Higher long-term yields are changing the trade-offs between income, price sensitivity and the obligations a portfolio must support.
Bond investors are facing an unusual combination of opportunity and pressure. Long-term government yields in Canada and the United States have risen to levels not seen for many years. On September 25, 2026, the U.S. Treasury curve closed at 4.98% for five years, 5.17% for 10 years and 5.49% for 30 years.¹ Canadian benchmark yields for the same time period were 3.69% for five years, 3.97% for 10 years and 4.27% for the long-term benchmark.² (see Chart)
High yields can improve the income available from high-quality fixed income. They also raise financing costs and place pressure on assets whose valuations depend on inexpensive capital. The same market movement can therefore help one part of an investor’s balance sheet while creating strain elsewhere.
Exhibit: Average Yields For Selected Government Of Canada Marketable Bonds: 2004 – 2026
Source: CanDeal Data and Analytics (CanDeal DNA) and Bank of Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/
Why Long Rates Move Differently
Central banks set very short-term policy rates. Investors determine longer-term bond yields through the prices they are willing to pay for securities that mature years or decades in the future. The latter reflect expected inflation and economic growth, as well as compensation for committing capital over a longer period.
At the same time, there is a volume story happening. Large fiscal deficits and heavy government issuance require investors to absorb more supply. Corporate borrowers compete for the same capital, adding to the financing demands placed on the market.
This helps explain why long-term yields can remain elevated even when the path for an overnight policy rate is less clear. It also means that a forecast about the next central bank decision is not enough to guide a long-term bond allocation.
The Effect Beyond Bonds
When yields rise, the price of an existing fixed-rate bond generally falls because newly issued securities offer more attractive income. The effect is greater for longer-maturity bonds, which have more payments exposed to a change in market rates.
Higher yields also change the economics of borrowing. Mortgages, investment loans, business credit and commercial real estate financing may become more expensive to renew. Companies facing higher funding costs might delay projects or demand a higher expected return before investing. And assets purchased with leverage can feel the effect from both lower valuations and more costly debt.
For investors who own businesses, real estate or private investments alongside marketable securities, the relevant exposure can be larger than the bond allocation suggests. A portfolio review should look at where rising rates affect income, valuations and liabilities at the same time.
The Role of Fixed Income À Your Portfolio
Capital reserved for a near-term obligation requires a different approach from assets intended to generate income over decades or provide balance during equity-market declines. So, begin by determining what fixed income is intended to accomplish in your portfolio.
Shorter maturities can limit price volatility and provide access to capital, exposing investors to reinvestment risk. If yields decline, maturing securities may have to be reinvested at lower rates. Longer maturities can secure income over an extended period and benefit from lower yields, although their prices are more sensitive to changes in interest rates.
To balance these trade-offs, create a diversified maturity structure where the appropriate allocation reflects expected cash requirements, credit quality and the sensitivity of the rest of the portfolio to interest rates. In addition, take into account the timing of debt renewals and other obligations outside the investment account.
A useful analysis can map maturities against known cash needs and test what happens if yields move another 50 or 100 basis points in either direction. This helps you understand where the portfolio would gain, where it would lose, and whether sufficient capital would remain available when needed.
As you review your fixed income portfolio, work with your advisor to understand whether the income, maturity and risk characteristics are aligned with the obligations that capital is intended to support. Higher yields create opportunities to improve that alignment, provided investors consider the other side of their balance sheet.
Sources
1. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Accessed September 25, 2026
2. Bank of Canada, Selected Bond Yields. Accessed September 25, 2026
